Observe, don’t predict
The phase is a bounded interpretation of current and recently released data. It does not estimate the probability or timing of a future recession.
Live U.S. macro snapshot
Market cycle and recession indicators.
One transparent view of growth, rates, the yield curve, industry, sentiment, and VisionBoard’s reality adjustment. The labels describe this model’s current reading—they are not an official recession call or a forecast.
Data snapshot:
Official-input phaseBoom
Reality-adjusted phaseRecession
Economic health / cycle coordinate56/100 · 49.1
The six signals behind the reading
Every row shows the latest value available to the weekly model cache, the signal classification used by VisionBoard, its configured weight, and the model’s plain-language interpretation.
| Signal | Latest value | Model signal | Weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth | 1.5% annual rate | Boom | 23% | Moderate GDP growth - boom phase |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | 0.50 percentage points | Recession | 23% | Yield curve flattening - recession warning |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.63% | Boom | 18% | Mixed inflation/rate signals - boom phase |
| Industrial Production | 103.0 index | Boom | 3% | Moderate industrial production - boom phase |
| Consumer Sentiment | 49.5 index | Neutral | 9% | Moderate consumer confidence - mixed signals |
| Alternative Economic Reality | 12% adjustment factor | Recession | 10% | Alternative data reality check: 0 high impact gaps, 0 medium impact gaps |
How to read this dashboard
Check the source lag
GDP, industrial production, sentiment, rates, and yield spreads publish on different schedules and may be revised after release.
Inspect disagreement
The official-input and reality-adjusted readings are shown together because disagreement between data layers is itself useful context.
Methodology before conclusions. Review the weights, phase bands, adjustment rules, and failure modes, then inspect the named primary data sources. VisionBoard Finance is informational and educational only; it does not provide individualized investment advice.