Observe, don’t predict
The phase is a bounded interpretation of current and recently released data. It does not estimate the probability or timing of a future recession.
Latest available U.S. macro snapshot
Market cycle and recession indicators.
One transparent view of growth, rates, the yield curve, industry, sentiment, and VisionBoard’s reality adjustment. The labels describe this model’s current reading—they are not an official recession call or a forecast.
Data snapshot:
Baseline model phaseRecession
Reality-adjusted phaseRecession
Adjusted economic health61/100
Higher means healthier conditions.
Baseline cycle coordinate51.6/100
Higher means more contraction stress.
Health-score inputs, not cycle-position weights
These are inputs to the separate economic health score. The cycle position uses a different six-component model; see the cycle-position weights. Shown nominal weights total 86%. Effective weights divide each active weight by the total available weight; missing observations are excluded. Payroll employment is omitted when no valid observation is available. The adjustment factor is a model estimate, not an independent economic measurement.
| Signal | Latest value | Health signal | Nominal weight | Effective weight | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth | 2.2% annual rate | Expansion | 23% | 26.7% | Strong GDP growth - expansion phase |
| 10Y-2Y Yield Spread | 0.44 percentage points | Recession | 23% | 26.7% | Yield curve flattening - recession warning |
| Federal Funds Rate | 3.88% | Boom | 18% | 20.9% | Mixed inflation/rate signals - boom phase |
| Industrial Production | 103.1 index | Boom | 3% | 3.5% | Moderate industrial production - boom phase |
| Consumer Sentiment | 51.7 index | Neutral | 9% | 10.5% | Moderate consumer confidence - mixed signals |
| Alternative Economic Reality | 13% adjustment factor | Recession | 10% | 11.6% | Alternative data reality check: 0 high impact gaps, 0 medium impact gaps |
How to read this dashboard
Check the source lag
GDP, industrial production, sentiment, rates, and yield spreads publish on different schedules and may be revised after release.
Inspect disagreement
The baseline and reality-adjusted models are shown together because disagreement between data layers is itself useful context.
Methodology before conclusions. Review the weights, phase bands, adjustment rules, and failure modes, then inspect the named primary data sources. VisionBoard Finance is informational and educational only; it does not provide individualized investment advice.