Stock Market Today (March 31, 2026): S&P 500 Climbs as Quarter Ends — But April 2 Looms
Wall Street started the final session of Q1 2026 on a cautiously optimistic note. The S&P 500 rose roughly +0.96% to around 6,405, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed +0.7% overnight, with European markets also green. On the surface, a relief rally. Underneath it, a market bracing for what comes next.
What moved them
The overnight bid came as oil prices pulled back slightly from earlier gains tied to geopolitical tension. Sentiment improved enough to push futures higher, but the buying has a nervous quality to it — quarter-end rebalancing and positioning ahead of April 2 is doing a lot of the work here.
The 10-year Treasury yield eased modestly to 4.32%, down about 3 basis points on the session. That is giving equities a small tailwind, but yields remain elevated — up 28bps on the month — which continues to pressure rate-sensitive names and growth stocks.
Geopolitics
The Iran tanker strike story is keeping WTI oil prices elevated and adding a risk premium to energy markets. Meanwhile, the bigger macro shadow hanging over everything is April 2 — the White House self-declared Liberation Day for tariff announcements. Markets have not priced in a worst-case scenario, but they have not ignored it either. The VIX remains elevated relative to where it was six months ago.
Bottom line
Q1 ends with the S&P 500 down roughly 6.9% for the month despite being up ~13.7% year-over-year. The rally today is real but thin — quarter-end flows, not conviction. The real test comes Wednesday when tariff specifics land. If the scope is narrow, markets could rally hard. If it is broad, expect another leg down.
For now: green open, cautious tone, eyes on April 2.